The Lowry Letter®

Given the recent volatility in the markets, we decided to schedule a live webinar on Thursday, April 28, at 4pm.

Here is the link to register:
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_P1hp58jxT92sskk1KEE1TA

A recording will be made available afterward for those who can’t attend live. Please send any questions to [email protected]

We are planning our next live “Ask the Joes®” event for early May. If you have any questions you would like for us to review, please let us know.

We hope you enjoy this week’s edition!

The markets and our office will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. We wish a Happy Easter to all who observe the holiday!

The First Quarter 2022 Market Recap is available here, a concise summary of a turbulent 3 months! For an update on April’s market risk factors, this post has a helpful rundown.

Welcome to the 2nd quarter of the 22nd second year of the 21st Century! March saw the S&P 500 break its 2-month losing streak for returns. Bonds continued to feel the pressure of expected continued rate increases.

Inflation and the war in Ukraine continue to affect markets negatively, though the economy continues to expand. We’ll talk more next week about other economic factors that you are probably hearing about.

We hope you’ll forgive our Spring Break-induced lapse in the Lowry Letter®. We made the most of a quick trip to UT with Joseph III. Arches National Park does not disappoint.

For those of you who missed our webinar last week, the link to the replay is below.

We were reminded this week of the prevalence of identity theft. One of our clients had fraudulent accounts opened at a credit union and an online brokerage. They were alerted of the accounts being opened by confirmation letters that were sent to their home.

It’s a good reminder to pay attention to your mail, including things that seem like run-of-the-mill solicitations. Fortunately, in both cases the fraud departments of the institutions were alerted and (as far as we know) have dealt with the issue.

We are very close to the 2-year anniversary of one of the key inflection points in the beginning of the pandemic - on March 11, 2020, the NBA suspended its season due to COVID-19. We were at a conference in New Orleans and remember the uncertainty about what it would mean for the future.

If current events reinforce anything, it is that uncertainty is a feature, not a bug. The ban on Russian oil imports will affect energy prices around the world. How much and for how long? We had the same questions about COVID-19’s persistence. Hopefully, the war in Ukraine is not with us as long.

We hope you will join us next Thursday, March 10^th, at 5pm for a live “Ask the Joes® (and Cale)” about the state of the markets and other current events. You can register here:

https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_K3FJcFoiTYuMsJPvjF5Dog

If you think it would interest any of your friends, you may share the link.

We don’t know the exact origin of the saying, but “Things are never as good (or as bad) as they seem,” is as correct today as ever.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is deeply distressing. We’re going to review the financial implications but can’t ignore the sadness we feel for the loss of life and health that is resulting.

We’ve seen more downward movement in the market in response to the conflict and expect volatility to continue. Oil prices will continue to be impacted, and this will further impact inflation, an ongoing domestic concern. US producers have already started to ramp up production.

The direct impact on financial markets will likely be small, speaking of the effect on earnings and other related measurements of economic activity. As Brad McMillan explains, for the conflict to sink the markets in a meaningful way, earnings would have to be affected. Economic fundamentals remain strong.

As with previous periods of uncertainty, focusing on your specific goals and situation is most important.

Russia may invade Ukraine and there is uncertainty about the direction of interest rates in the United States. In other words, uncertainty is still part of an investor’s daily experience.

Remaining diversified and focused on your specific goals and situation is still the best course for long-term investors.