The Lowry Letter®

At a conference we attended last week, Brad McMillan shared an update on Covid and the economy. Many of the thoughts he shared are available here. The bottom line is that Covid cases continue to improve, but that seasonal issues may lead to another uptick.

Uncertainty stemming from Covid is THE issue for the economy and the markets. Supply chain issues WILL eventually subside, but it seems that as one issue is resolved (ports lacking unloading capacity) another arises (24/7 port operations lead to truck & rail shortages).

We should expect more up-and-down months as consumer demand remains stronger in many areas than suppliers can satisfy. Labor remains a key concern for many.

Concerned holiday shoppers will want to get their lists completed early.

Washington is slowly resolving some of the questions we have been discussing with many of you, involving the debt ceiling, future spending, and the increased taxes that will accompany it. The next few months will provide further clarity and we look forward to it.

We continue to feel confident in the direction of the economy and the importance of sticking to your long-term investment programs. Market volatility will continue, but this is normal and not a reason to deviate.

It’s hard to believe that we are in the 4^th quarter of 2021. This is the season of required minimum distributions, charitable contributions, and tax planning. You will receive communication from us on the first item, and we are glad to talk about the second and third with you.

The financial markets were down in September, partly in response to the latest Covid wave. As we left the month, medical data was improving. Brad McMillan has more in this video.

We had a great update from our friend Dru with Guggenheim Investments last Thursday. They see continued economic growth and low recession risk for the foreseeable future. More resources from them are available here.

Apple has released some important security updates for desktop and mobile devices. We recommend that you update promptly to avoid malicious software. You should be especially cautious about any file downloads. Please let us know if you have any questions.

We hope you can join us for our Economic & Market Update with Guggenheim Investments Thursday September 23rd at 12pm Eastern.

You can register at this link:

https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_-8m3z74jSMC-gYk4DLWKNg

There will be time for Q&A, and you can also forward questions in advance by replying to this email.

As you know, the 20^th Anniversary of 9/11 was last Saturday. We watched a new documentary, 9/11: One Day in America, and it was harrowing, tragic, uplifting, and many other emotions. It is not easy to watch but feels like a comprehensive and important record of the day’s events.

We sent out an email earlier this week about our market and economic update with Guggenheim. It has been postponed until next week, Thursday September 23^rd at 12pm Eastern. We hope you can join us. You can register at this link:

https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_-8m3z74jSMC-gYk4DLWKNg

Our hiatus last week was partly due to our visit to Seattle, WA, where we formally welcomed August Michael to the Lowry family and enjoyed time with his parents, Chris & Erin. It was a real blessing to be able to spend the time with them and the littlest Lowry.

Please mark Sept 14^th as the date of our next webinar, this time with Guggenheim Investments. They will provide a market update and be available to answer questions as well. They are one our preferred fixed income managers, and we look forward to the event.

Many of you use our account access app, Investor360, to review your portfolios and to link outside investment accounts. As with many apps, security is a major focus and two-factor authentication will soon be implemented. Please keep an eye out for an email that will provide additional information about the implementation and timing of the change.

We know that linking outside accounts has not been smooth for some of you since the change in the provider that manages the aggregation tool. We appreciate your patience with the process and welcome any questions or feedback that you have as improvements continue.

The Covid-19 situation continues to be tragic. We are not medical professionals, infectious disease experts, or epidemiologists, but every conversation we have had with experts in those areas strengthens the case for vaccines as the single best way to reduce the risk of the worst outcomes.

Increased vaccination is also the surest path to economic stability.

We have a few interesting items this week, including a new “Ask the Joes® (and Cale).”

First, our congratulations to Bea on the birth of her granddaughter several weeks ago! She visited the office for the first time yesterday and we were happy to meet her.

This summer, the Joes have visited several National Parks, including Badlands, Wind Cave, Yellowstone, & Glacier. During the most recent visit, to Wyoming & Montana, the impact of Covid-19 on a “fully open” economy was evident.

The appetite for travel is extremely high, with many restaurants and other stores telling us they had never seen higher demand. At the same time, their capacity to meet the demand remains limited. Many businesses had posted signs seeking additional employees, some with hiring bonuses of hundreds of dollars. When checking bags at the Kalispell airport, there was one agent handling 3 flights worth of baggage. She explained that Covid-related issues had 6 employees unavailable for work.

In addition to the current strain on hospitals and front-line workers, Covid continues to reduce economic capacity. We hope there is more motivation for increased vaccinations as the data shows much better outcomes when breakthrough cases occur (and which remain a very small percentage of new cases).

For a review of a turbulent July, the month-end market recap is available here and Brad McMillan’s market thoughts video is here.